India’s aggressive push to expand its coal-based steelmaking capacity may pose a significant challenge to its goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2070, according to a report released by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) on Tuesday. The report warns that the country’s plans to ramp up steel production to meet rising demand may lead to a substantial increase in greenhouse gas emissions, hindering efforts to combat climate change.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set 2070 as the target year for India to reach net-zero emissions—two decades later than the timeline recommended by climate scientists to avert severe global warming. However, the country’s plans to expand its steelmaking capacity, driven by rapid economic growth and increased infrastructure spending, are expected to raise emissions significantly, undermining these long-term climate goals. According to GEM, ongoing investments in new coal-powered blast furnaces, along with the continued reliance on emissions-intensive steel production, could leave India with substantial “stranded assets” and exacerbate its carbon footprint. The report estimates that the additional blast furnace capacity could result in 680 million metric tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions from the steel sector alone. This projection poses a serious threat to India’s 2070 target, as the country’s steel production currently emits 38% more carbon dioxide per ton of crude steel than the global average.
India, already the second-largest producer of crude steel in the world, aims to increase its steel production capacity to 300 million metric tons by 2030, up from the current 180 million metric tons. However, the country has the largest pipeline of steelmaking projects under development, totaling around 258 million metric tons per year, according to GEM. This rapid expansion of capacity relies heavily on coal, with 85% of energy used in the steel sector coming from this fossil fuel. While electric arc furnaces are emerging as a cleaner alternative, they currently account for only 13% of steel production capacity under development, compared to 69% for coal-based blast furnaces. With steelmaking emissions contributing significantly to India’s overall carbon output, the GEM report urges the government to reconsider its coal-intensive approach to steel production. If left unchecked, the rapid expansion of coal-powered steelmaking could severely undermine India’s climate ambitions, creating long-term environmental and financial risks. The report emphasizes the importance of transitioning to cleaner steelmaking technologies, such as electric arc furnaces, to help India meet its carbon reduction targets and avoid economic consequences in the future.
