For decades, we believed geopolitics belonged in chancelleries, not boardrooms. The Iran crisis has shattered that illusion—decisively and perhaps permanently.Today, a missile fired near the Strait of Hormuz lands on an Indian construction site within weeks—through crude volatility, supply chain drag, and capital flight. With 20% of global oil transiting that strait, India’s energy import bill is no longer just a fiscal metric; it is the single largest variable in our project economics.
Let me be direct: this is not a passing storm. It is a structural shift in how the world will work for the next decade. And Indian real estate must respond as a leader, not a follower
The immediate mathematics are unforgiving.
Every $10 rise in crude per barrel adds 30–40 basis points to our construction costs—steel, cement, logistics, and financing all move in lockstep. Inflationary pressures will test affordability in mid-income housing.
When capital flees uncertainty, it seeks three things: stability, scale, and rule of law. India offers all three. Our domestic consumption story, infrastructure push (from Gati Shakti to urban transit), and a regulatory regime that has matured through RERA and REITs make us one of the few large markets where long-term value is still visible.
My message to every developer, investor, and policymaker is this:
n Do not hoard land—accelerate execution. Speed is the new hedge. Faster project delivery lowers interest cost risk and locks in pricing before the next crude spike.
n Redesign for resilience. Diversify supply chains for materials. Adopt green construction to reduce energy dependence. Price in a $100–$120 oil scenario into your models, not today’s rate.
n Defend the end-user. In past cycles, developers passed costs directly to buyers. That reflex will break trust now. Work with government on GST rationalisation for construction inputs and advocate for priority sector lending for affordable housing. A protected buyer is a stable revenue stream.
Let me be equally clear on what we will not do: panic, stall, or lobby for artificial bailouts. This industry spent a decade cleaning its balance sheet after 2013–2016. We are leaner, more transparent, and more disciplined than ever. That credibility is our true geopolitical hedge.
History will not remember how we complained about the Iran crisis. It will remember whether we used it to become more efficient, more self-reliant, and more trusted.
The coming 18 months will separate the speculative from the substantial. CREDAI stands ready to lead that transformation—not by predicting the next missile, but by building a real estate sector that no global shock can break.
India’s story is being tested. Let us ensure it emerges strengthened.
Boman Irani
Chairman, CREDAI National
