India’s real estate growth faces an affordability test

India’s organised residential property market is heading into FY27 with an ambitious sales pipeline, as 11 major listed developers are projected to record combined pre-sales of ₹1.82 lakh crore. The estimate points to 22.3% growth from FY26, but the headline figure masks a market increasingly dependent on premium housing, larger homes and higher selling prices rather than a comparable rise in unit volumes.

The projection is based on an analysis of developer investor presentations and points to continued strength among financially established builders. Ten of the 11 companies covered are expected to increase pre-sales, while almost half are projected to deliver growth above 20%. The estimates also show wide differences between developers, reflecting the uneven nature of India’s housing recovery.The housing sales outlook is particularly strong for developers with exposure to premium markets. Oberoi Realty is projected to record the fastest growth, with estimated FY27 pre-sales of ₹13,000 crore, followed by Puravankara at ₹11,200 crore and Mahindra Lifespaces at ₹4,800 crore. Prestige Estates is expected to remain the largest among the group by projected bookings, at about ₹35,300 crore. DLF is the only developer in the group forecast to see a marginal decline, with sales broadly stable around ₹20,000 crore.

That composition matters. Higher property prices can lift the value of bookings even when the number of homes sold grows more slowly. Larger apartment sizes have a similar effect. For developers, this can support revenue visibility; for households, however, it raises a harder question about who is able to participate in the market.The housing sales outlook also reflects a shift towards financially stronger, listed and Grade-A developers. Their share of new launches increased between FY26 and the first quarter of FY27 across several major markets, including NCR, Bengaluru, Pune, Hyderabad, Chennai, Kolkata and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. This suggests buyers and lenders are placing greater weight on execution capacity, financial transparency and delivery track records.Yet greater market concentration does not automatically solve India’s urban housing challenge. Premium developments can generate construction employment, expand municipal revenues and support local services, but they may also push land values higher in already expensive corridors.

Cities need a broader supply mix if growth is to serve workers, first-time buyers and middle-income households alongside affluent consumers.There is an infrastructure dimension as well. New housing creates additional demand for roads, public transport, water, sewage, electricity, schools and healthcare. In climate-exposed cities, drainage, heat protection and water security also need to be considered before large projects are approved.The sector enters FY27 with relatively controlled inventory among most of the developers analysed, but the next stage of growth will require more than sales momentum. The housing sales outlook will ultimately be judged by whether rising investment produces well-connected, resilient neighbourhoods and a wider range of homes, rather than simply higher-value property transactions.

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India’s real estate growth faces an affordability test