Cement prices saw a slight increase in January 2025, continuing the upward trend observed in the latter part of 2024. According to analysts at Nomura, the average trade price of cement rose by ₹2 per bag, reaching ₹343, compared to ₹341 in December 2024. However, despite this price increase, the outlook for demand remains uncertain, with regional pricing trends showing mixed results across India.
The Eastern region experienced the most significant rise, with prices increasing by ₹5 month-on-month (MoM), reaching ₹314 per bag. This surge was largely driven by a ₹20 hike in West Bengal, where demand remains relatively strong. In contrast, the Western region saw a more modest increase of ₹3 MoM, bringing the average price to ₹353 per bag. This uptick was driven by a ₹10 price increase in Gujarat, which also recorded notable volume growth in December 2024. The Central region, however, saw a decline in prices, with the average price falling by ₹3 MoM to ₹365 per bag. This decrease reflects weaker demand in December, which analysts attribute to subdued activity in the construction sector. Dealers in the Central region have expressed expectations of continued sluggishness until mid-January, citing colder weather conditions that typically hamper construction activities.
In the Southern region, cement prices remained stable at ₹323 per bag, as the region continues to experience weak demand, particularly in Hyderabad. Slower real estate and construction activity are being blamed, along with labor shortages due to regional festivals such as Pongal. However, dealers are hopeful that demand will pick up later in the month as government projects in Kerala, particularly those with deadlines in March 2025, begin to gather momentum. Notably, the Central region was the only one to experience a price drop, with a 1 percent decline in average prices. Other regions, including the East, West, and South, have reported mild to significant increases in pricing. Despite the overall price rise, demand recovery remains uneven, and analysts expect this trend to continue until mid-January.
In terms of stock recommendations, Nomura analysts continue to favour a positive outlook for UltraTech Cement, maintaining a “buy” rating. Other companies such as Shree Cement, Ambuja Cement, and Ramco Cement also received positive ratings. On the other hand, Nuvoco Vistas Corporation and ACC hold a “neutral” stance, while Dalmia Bharat is recommended for a “reduce” rating. As cement prices show resilience, industry experts are cautious about the uneven pace of demand recovery, particularly with weather conditions and regional factors influencing construction activity across India.
